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Chang Yingzhi, a researcher in the chemical industry of China Investment Advisors, believes that due to the fact that most of the production capacity of compound fertilizer producers cannot be effectively released recently, the output of compound fertilizers is limited, and the current inventory of major companies is low, making the market supply of compound fertilizer more tense. . The market demand for domestic compound fertilizers is very strong. At present, the demand for compound fertilizers is far greater than the market supply. Therefore, due to the tension between supply and demand, domestic compound fertilizer prices have risen.
Chang Zhizhi pointed out that some time ago, due to the impact of energy-saving and emission-reduction, some of the compound fertilizer producers had insufficient operating rates, which made the market supply of compound fertilizers limited, and the inventory of compound fertilizers was not large. Moreover, at present, the compound fertilizer production facilities of some enterprises have entered the maintenance phase, which also reduces the market supply of compound fertilizers. Therefore, the tight supply of the market has provided support for the rise in compound fertilizer prices.
Chang Yuzhi also pointed out that at present international compound fertilizer prices are much higher than domestic prices, making production companies relatively more willing to accept overseas orders, will also reduce the supply of domestic compound fertilizers, thereby supporting the domestic compound fertilizer prices. According to relevant data, the price of compound fertilizer in the international market has been rising recently, and there has been a huge price difference between compound fertilizer prices at home and abroad. For example, the price of diammonium phosphate of the same type in foreign countries is 538 US dollars / ton, while the domestic price is only 427 US dollars / ton, foreign prices are about 26% more expensive than domestic.
Chang Yongzhi believes that as energy conservation and emission reduction will continue, and the prices of upstream raw materials continue to be high, part of the compound fertilizer production enterprises are also cutting down the operating rate, and the supply of compound fertilizer will remain tight in the market for a period of time, and the price of domestic compound fertilizer will decline in the later period. The space is small.
There is little room for the recent decline in domestic fertilizer prices
In October this year, major compound fertilizer manufacturers increased the selling price of diammonium phosphate one after another. Some companies have already raised the ex-factory price to 3,400 yuan/ton, and prices have generally risen by 200-300 yuan/ton, up by 5%. the above.