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The "Passenger Blue Book" released in Beijing recently shows that in the future, China's sales growth center for large and medium-sized passenger cars will face the risk of "downward steps."
The reason lies in the structural factors that promote the rapid growth of China's large and medium-sized passenger vehicles, such as the rapid growth of passenger traffic, the relative shortage of railway transportation capacity, and the low penetration rate of private cars. Its kinetic energy may weaken in the next 5-10 years.
However, school buses still have a lot of room for development. In 2012, the sales volume of school buses in our country was 27,000. There is still a lot of room to achieve retention. It is expected that the growth rate of school buses will reach about 20% annually in the next five years, and the sales volume for 2017 is expected to be About 82,000 vehicles.
However, through the “blowout†of school buses in 2012, the sales of school buses in 2013 grew slowly. The reason is that the school bus subsidy policy has been lacking for a long time. In the first half of 2013, sales increased only 16.71% compared with the same period of 2012, accounting for 10.95% of the total sales of passenger cars. Only slightly higher than the same period in 2012.
Judging from the school bus sales of ten mainstream bus companies, Yutong, Ankai and other half of the company's bus sales in the first half of 2013 had a negative growth, and the decline rate was over 20%.
School buses are a major focus of people's livelihood. The government will inevitably increase its support for school bus development. According to the Blue Book, the number of regular school buses is now less than 100,000, and the annual demand is at least 150,000. The market capacity of school buses in China is about 1 million.
According to the Blue Book, there are no clear legal requirements for the school bus's sources of funding, subsidies, etc. The school bus operation lacks a fixed, long-term source of funding and development will inevitably not be rapid. The regulation, implementation, and allocation of school bus funds will be China's fiscal and taxation system. A major change.
The growth rate of school buses in China will be around 20% in the next five years